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Some have argued that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s biggest weapons could be boycotts of American brands by his country’s legion of consumers. Good luck with that. He would risk ticking off his own consumers, many of whom do not trust similar China brands. This is especially true in medication and baby food, to give just two examples. (Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg)
Within the next days, the reboot of talks between Bejing and Washington begins again as trade delegates from China are supposed to show up sometime this month. This will be the first meeting between the two sides since June 3. Other than the Russian election meddling story, President Trump’s China policy has been the biggest international headline impacting markets since Inauguration Day.
On the campaign trail, Trump told his fanbase that they would become so tired of winning that they would beg him, “Mr. President, please. Stop winning!” Who is winning this trade war so far?
If you want to know what the Chinese are thinking about this, there is no better place to go than the South China Morning Post. The question of “Where are we now?” can be best answered in their op-eds. The SCMP is the main vehicle for Beijing think tanks (some being censored on the mainland) to voice their opposition to Xi Jinping’s counterpunch against President Trump. There is a sense of mild panic. Something is amiss in China. People’s trust in the authorities has fallen to freezing point, whatever their political leaning. The recent Changsheng vaccine scandal is a case in point. And it is worth noting that the Chinese prefer importing foods and medicines made and packaged abroad, not at home. What will China do if Trump slaps a tariff on every single thing they export? Do the same to the U.S.? They’d be taxing goods Chinese consumers trust and want. Good luck sanctioning American brands like Apple and Nike. Much of this idea of a boycott has come from the same crowd that held Xi up as the poster boy of global trade at the 2017 World Economic Forum. They are just itching for Trump to fall flat on his face in this one. Boycott Apple and Nike, watch Alibaba and Tencent stocks fall to the floor.
China is not winning the trade war, and yes, in the short term at least, that victory can be measured by what the market thinks about all this. Mainland China shares are down over 20% year-to-date. The S&P 500 is up 5.7%. That’s better than FTSE Europe, MSCI Japan, MSCI Emerging Markets, and better than single markets like Mexico.
News of the talks was met with market optimism that may carry over into this trading week.
Chinese President Xi Jinping. Beijing is hoping that the Democrats take the midterms and flip the House, adding more chaos to Washington. But the Democrats who are being promoted are far from free traders. And Trump doesn’t need Congress to act on trade policy. Bad bet by Bejing. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2018/08/19/china-trade-war-where-are-we-now/?utm_source=TWITTER&utm_medium=social&utm_term=Bonnie%2F#62c887235329